(Image source & copyrights: Ibrahim Hasan, Flickr, PDM)

October 7, 2023, marked a geopolitical turning point for the Middle East. Hamas's brutal attack on Israel triggered a regional escalation with far-reaching consequences – not only for Israel's security, but also for the fragile balance of power in Syria, Iran, and beyond. At the heart of this dynamic is Israel's military intervention, which is as internationally controversial as it is strategically consequential.

Israeli preventive policy: Survival as a raison d'état

In Western democracies, Israel's military actions are frequently criticized as disproportionate. However, this assessment often overlooks the existential threat under which the Jewish state constantly faces. The repeated and explicitly stated threat of its annihilation – particularly by Iran and its proxies – fundamentally shapes Israel's security policy.

From this perspective, the military operations after October 7th appear not merely as a reaction to terrorism, but as strategically motivated preventive measures. Beyond the destruction of Hamas, they aimed at a long-term transformation of regional power relations – for example, by weakening Hezbollah and effectively disrupting the Shiite supply route between Tehran, Baghdad, Damascus, and Beirut.

The Syrian upheaval: From proxy war to redistribution of power

In this context, a completely new situation arose for the opposition groups in Syria. The weakening of Iranian influence structures through Israeli airstrikes and covert operations enabled the rebels to gain crucial ground and ultimately overthrow the Assad regime. It can be assumed that this process took place with the informal participation, or at least the tacit approval, of regional actors who had an interest in a strategic realignment.

The result is a power vacuum that also presents an opportunity: Dismantling the Shiite axis is not only in Israel's interest, but also in the interest of those Sunni-dominated states that felt threatened by Iranian expansionism. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar are likely to have welcomed this shift. Turkey, in turn, is consolidating its geopolitical position—particularly in the energy sector.

Iran: Strategic borders and domestic political risks

The Islamic Republic is under massive domestic political and economic pressure. Continuing the costly support for foreign militias—be they the Houthis, Hezbollah, or paramilitary units in Syria—is becoming increasingly difficult to justify to its own population. Personal observations from 2016/2017 illustrate that people in Iran largely pursue pragmatic goals: security, economic stability, and individual freedoms. Given growing discontent, a new wave of protests against the regime cannot be ruled out, especially since the leadership has so far failed to initiate any lasting reforms.

Impact on Europe: Security, energy and strategic options

The current dynamics also present strategic opportunities for Europe. Should a new Syrian government force the closure of Russian military bases, Moscow's presence in the eastern Mediterranean would be significantly weakened. Combined with a potential blockade of the Bosporus by Turkey in a crisis, this would isolate the Russian Black Sea Fleet – a security policy gain for NATO and potentially also for Ukraine.

Furthermore, new perspectives are opening up in the energy sector. The development of gas fields in cooperation with Israel, Egypt, and Turkey could not only provide regional impetus but also contribute significantly to European energy independence. The need for reliable imports to support industrial transformation—particularly in Germany—is enormous. A stable Mediterranean region is a fundamental prerequisite for this.

The “axis of resistance”: Weakened, but not neutralized

The ideological and operational weakening of the so-called "axis of resistance" is evident. Nevertheless, its remaining capacity for action should not be underestimated. While a return to its former strength remains unlikely in the short term, ideological networks and the threat of asymmetric threats persist.

At the same time, Israel's military successes have created new operational spaces – for example, in Syrian airspace. These enable strategic options, including preemptive strikes against the Iranian nuclear program. However controversial these measures may be in the West, from an Israeli perspective they follow a logic of survival: those who are constantly threatened with annihilation act before the threat becomes a reality.

Perspectives: Change through crisis?

In the long term, the current conflict – paradoxical as it may seem – could act as a catalyst for social reforms. Should Iran be forced to scale back its foreign policy ambitions, this could open up opportunities for change domestically. A return to reform approaches and greater respect for human rights, women's rights, and religious freedom are conceivable, though by no means guaranteed, consequences.

Syria also presents a historic opportunity: Building an inclusive state could contribute to long-term stabilization. The West should abandon the notion that its political models can be directly transferred. Crucially, it must be a coexistence on equal terms – economically, politically, and culturally.

Conclusion: Is Israel the driving force behind a regional reorganization?

The fall of Assad, the weakening of the Shiite axis, and the fragile vacuum in the Middle East present risks, but above all, enormous opportunities. The State of Israel, through its decisive action, has significantly contributed to this new order. Contrary to the intentions of the "axis of resistance," this could lead to a period of change—with the potential for greater stability, economic development, and a gradual improvement in the human rights situation.

Peaceful coexistence between nations with different value systems is possible when common interests are prioritized over ideological divides. Perhaps one day we will see Jewish merchants once again operating in Aleppo – interacting with people from all over the world.

If there is a lesson to be learned from the tragedy of October 7, 2023, it is this: Israel was not only the target of an attack, but became the trigger for a fundamental upheaval that, despite all the hardships, opened up the prospect of a new order in the Middle East.